Prop Firm Challenge Pass Rate Calculator — Monte Carlo Simulator

Win rate alone does not determine pass rate — R:R ratio matters equally. A 40% win rate with 2:1 R:R (average win = $200, average loss = $100) has positive expectancy of +$20 per trade. A 70% win rate with 0.5:1 R:R has negative expectancy of −$5 per trade. Calculate expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) first.

FTMO has publicly stated that approximately 90% of challenge attempts fail. Most failures come from breaching the daily loss limit (often in one bad day) or the max drawdown. Traders who risk less than 1% per trade and have positive expectancy systems have much higher individual pass rates.

It depends on your system's expectancy. If your average trade profit (after wins and losses) is $200 and you need $10,000 profit, you need roughly 50 trades in expectancy terms. With 5 trades per day, that's 10 trading days of average results. But variance means you need extra margin — run 30 days to have buffer.

More trades = more variance. Taking 20 trades per day instead of 5 increases both your chance of hitting the target faster AND your chance of a big losing day that blows the account. Slow, consistent trading passes challenges more reliably than overtrading. Match your challenge pace to your normal trading frequency.

Higher R:R ratios reduce the number of wins needed but create longer losing streaks. A 2:1 R:R with 45% win rate has positive expectancy (+$45/trade avg). A 1:1 R:R needs 51%+ win rate to be profitable. For prop firms, a 1.5:1 to 2:1 R:R with 45–55% win rate tends to balance pass rate and drawdown risk optimally.